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@ARTICLE{2026HydSJ..71.1814A,
       author = {{Alkhawlani}, Q. and {Algburi}, Sameer and {Sabeeh}, Salah and {Alsubih}, Majed and {Islam}, Saiful and {Abad Khan}, Roohul},
        title = "{Quantified groundwater--surface water dynamics across Tigris--Euphrates basin through integrated modelling}",
      journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
     keywords = {Tigris--Euphrates basin, groundwater storage, GRACE, machine learning, groundwater--surface water interaction, climate change},
         year = 2026,
        month = jul,
       volume = {71},
       number = {9},
        pages = {1814-1828},
     abstract = "{Water scarcity in Iraq's Tigris--Euphrates basin is intensifying under
        climate change, upstream regulation, and increasing demand,
        creating pressure on groundwater and surface water
        sustainability. This study develops an integrated framework that
        merges Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment groundwater
        anomalies, Global Land Data Assimilation System soil moisture
        fields, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
        evapotranspiration, hydrometric observations, and machine
        learning to quantify groundwater--surfacewater exchanges. An
        extreme gradient boosting model predicts groundwater levels with
        R$^{2}$ of 0.92 and root mean square error of 0.15 m. Results
        indicate groundwater storage declines ranging from
        {\ensuremath{-}}1.4 cm year$^{{\ensuremath{-}}1}$ in the north
        to {\ensuremath{-}}0.9 cm year$^{{\ensuremath{-}}1}$ in the
        south during 2002--2023, with seasonal deficits amplifying
        depletion. Exchange flux analysis reveals groundwater discharge
        sustaining rivers during droughts and flood-induced recharge
        during high flows. Scenario projections to 2050 show moderated
        depletion under RCP4.5 but accelerated decline under RCP8.5,
        emphasizing the need for adaptive abstraction control and
        managed recharge strategies.}",
          doi = {10.1080/02626667.2026.2655443},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026HydSJ..71.1814A},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}