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An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries

Kansara, Prakrut, Li, Wenzhao, El-Askary, Hesham, Lakshmi, Venkataraman, Piechota, Thomas, Struppa, Daniele, and Abdelaty Sayed, Mohamed, 2021. An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries. Remote Sensing, 13(4):711, doi:10.3390/rs13040711.

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@ARTICLE{2021RemS...13..711K,
       author = {{Kansara}, Prakrut and {Li}, Wenzhao and {El-Askary}, Hesham and {Lakshmi}, Venkataraman and {Piechota}, Thomas and {Struppa}, Daniele and {Abdelaty Sayed}, Mohamed},
        title = "{An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on the Downstream Countries}",
      journal = {Remote Sensing},
     keywords = {hydrology, Nile watershed, soil moisture, Sentinel-1, precipitation, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam},
         year = 2021,
        month = feb,
       volume = {13},
       number = {4},
          eid = {711},
        pages = {711},
     abstract = "{The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the
        Millennium Dam, has been filling at a fast rate. This project
        has created issues for the Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Sudan,
        and Ethiopia. The filling of GERD has an impact on the Nile
        Basin hydrology and specifically the water storages
        (lakes/reservoirs) and flow downstream. In this study, through
        the analysis of multi-source satellite imagery, we study the
        filling of the GERD reservoir. The time-series generated using
        Sentinel-1 SAR imagery displays the number of classified water
        pixels in the dam from early June 2017 to September 2020,
        indicating a contrasting trend in August and September 2020 for
        the upstream/downstream water bodies: upstream of the dam rises
        steeply, while downstream decreases. Our time-series analysis
        also shows the average monthly precipitation (derived using
        IMERG) in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia has received an
        abnormally high amount of rainfall as well as a high amount of
        runoff (analyzed using GLDAS output). Simultaneously, the study
        also demonstrates the drying trend downstream at Lake Nasser in
        Southern Egypt before December 2020. From our results, we
        estimate that the volume of water at GERD has already increased
        by 3.584 billion cubic meters, which accounts for about 5.3\% of
        its planned capacity (67.37 billion cubic meters) from 9 July-30
        November 2020. Finally, we observed an increasing trend in GRACE
        anomalies for GERD, whereas, for the Lake Nasser, we observed a
        decreasing trend. In addition, our study discusses potential
        interactions between GERD and the rainfall and resulting flood
        in Sudan. Our study suggests that attention should be drawn to
        the connection between the GERD filling and potential drought in
        the downstream countries during the upcoming dry spells in the
        Blue Nile River Basin. This study provides an open-source
        technique using Google Earth Engine (GEE) to monitor the changes
        in water level during the filling of the GERD reservoir. GEE
        proves to be a powerful as well as an efficient way of analyzing
        computationally intensive SAR images.}",
          doi = {10.3390/rs13040711},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021RemS...13..711K},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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