Publications related to the GRACE Missions (no abstracts)

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Dynamics and Couplings of Terrestrial Water Storage Extremes From GRACE and GRACE–FO Missions During 2002–2024

Rateb, Ashraf, Scanlon, Bridget R., Pokhrel, Yadu, and Sun, Alexander, 2025. Dynamics and Couplings of Terrestrial Water Storage Extremes From GRACE and GRACE–FO Missions During 2002–2024. AGU Advances, 6(6):e2025AV001684, doi:10.1029/2025AV00168410.22541/essoar.174231343.34771478/v1.

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@ARTICLE{2025AGUA....601684R,
       author = {{Rateb}, Ashraf and {Scanlon}, Bridget R. and {Pokhrel}, Yadu and {Sun}, Alexander},
        title = "{Dynamics and Couplings of Terrestrial Water Storage Extremes From GRACE and GRACE-FO Missions During 2002--2024}",
      journal = {AGU Advances},
     keywords = {total water storage, extremes, GRACE/GRACE-FO},
         year = 2025,
        month = dec,
       volume = {6},
       number = {6},
          eid = {e2025AV001684},
        pages = {e2025AV001684},
     abstract = "{Hydroclimatic extremes such as droughts and floods severely impact
        global livelihoods, economies, and ecosystems, yet their
        attribution remains challenging. This study evaluates global
        Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) extremeness and climate linkages
        using GRACE and GRACE-FO data from 2002 to 2024. By examining
        upper and lower deciles of TWS anomalies representing wet and
        dry extremes and assessing spatial dependencies, we identify key
        patterns, trends, and driving factors through dimensional
        reduction and probabilistic modeling. Results show global TWS
        extremes are governed by a 2─3-year oscillatory cycle linked to
        El Ni{\~n}o─Southern Oscillation, which synchronizes drought and
        pluvial conditions across continents. Drought extremes show
        broader spatial coherence than pluvial events, indicating
        moisture deficits propagate more uniformly through the
        land─atmosphere system. A weaker quasi-decadal cycle (6─10
        years) modulates these responses and underlies a shift around
        2011─2012. Before 2011, wet extremes intensified, while after
        2012, dry extremes became dominant, particularly in interior
        Asia, western United States, and southern Africa. Neither
        pluvial nor drought extremes show significant global trends in
        intensity; however, they remain phase-locked, with wet events
        twice as intense as dry ones, reflecting asymmetric hydrologic
        response to moisture surpluses versus deficits. We
        probabilistically reconstruct TWS extremeness during satellite
        data gaps using leading spatio-temporal patterns. The current
        record, spanning less than one multidecadal cycle, remains
        insufficient for robust attribution. Extending satellite
        gravimetry is essential to refine uncertainty in attributing
        global pluvial and drought extremes under climate change.}",
          doi = {10.1029/2025AV00168410.22541/essoar.174231343.34771478/v1},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025AGUA....601684R},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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