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Evaluating time-lagged relationships between groundwater storage and river discharge using GRACE-based data: insights from the Potomac Basin

Villaruel, AJ, Seck, Alimatou, and Schultz, Cherie, 2025. Evaluating time-lagged relationships between groundwater storage and river discharge using GRACE-based data: insights from the Potomac Basin. Environmental Research Communications, 7(7):075003, doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ade36f.

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@ARTICLE{2025ERCom...7g5003V,
       author = {{Villaruel}, AJ and {Seck}, Alimatou and {Schultz}, Cherie},
        title = "{Evaluating time-lagged relationships between groundwater storage and river discharge using GRACE-based data: insights from the Potomac Basin}",
      journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
     keywords = {GRACE, groundwater drought indicator, groundwater-streamflow interactions, low streamflow, time-lag analysis, Potomac River Basin},
         year = 2025,
        month = jul,
       volume = {7},
       number = {7},
          eid = {075003},
        pages = {075003},
     abstract = "{This study evaluates the utility of a recently available GRACE-based
        groundwater drought index (GDI) in supporting regional water
        supply management, with application to the Potomac River Basin,
        in the U.S. Middle Atlantic region. As the primary drinking
        water source for the Washington Metropolitan Area (WMA),
        effective management of the Potomac River's resources is
        critical, especially in the context of climate change, with the
        expected increase in severity and frequency of extreme events.
        Our analysis integrates 22 years of data, including GRACE-based
        groundwater storage (GWS) index estimates, river discharge (Q)
        measurements, and meteorological records, to investigate trends
        and predictive relationships between past GWS, as determined by
        the GRACE-based drought index, and streamflow. Seasonal Mann-
        Kendall trend analyses consistently identified severe declining
        trends in groundwater storage (GWS), as well as moderate
        declines in minimum streamflow and well water levels over the
        past 22 years. Granger Causality (GC) tests revealed significant
        time lags of 49 weeks to 22 months at weekly and monthly scales,
        respectively depending on a region's hydrogeomorphic
        characteristics. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models and Forecast
        Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) highlighted the variable
        contributions of precipitation and temperature to the GWS-Q
        relationship, revealing a strong autoregressive component of Q,
        but also reveal that GWS plays an important role, and this role
        increases with time. These findings underscore the
        interconnectedness of groundwater and surface water systems and
        the importance of integrated predictive models to enhance water
        management strategies. Incorporating GRACE-based seasonal
        groundwater forecasts into drought preparedness tools could
        bolster efforts to mitigate regional climate change impacts and
        improve the resilience of water resources in the Potomac River
        Basin. While practical use of native GRACE data has been
        challenging for local, small-scale applications, this study
        demonstrates the utility of the GRACE-based GDI in forecasting
        low flows and informing regional water resource management
        decisions during droughts.}",
          doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ade36f},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025ERCom...7g5003V},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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