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Exploring the Main Driving Factors for Terrestrial Water Storage in China Using Explainable Machine Learning

Ma, Xinjing, Huang, Haijun, Chen, Jinwen, Yu, Qiang, and Cai, Xitian, 2025. Exploring the Main Driving Factors for Terrestrial Water Storage in China Using Explainable Machine Learning. Remote Sensing, 17(12):2078, doi:10.3390/rs17122078.

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BibTeX

@ARTICLE{2025RemS...17.2078M,
       author = {{Ma}, Xinjing and {Huang}, Haijun and {Chen}, Jinwen and {Yu}, Qiang and {Cai}, Xitian},
        title = "{Exploring the Main Driving Factors for Terrestrial Water Storage in China Using Explainable Machine Learning}",
      journal = {Remote Sensing},
     keywords = {terrestrial water storage, machine learning, China, SHAP},
         year = 2025,
        month = jun,
       volume = {17},
       number = {12},
          eid = {2078},
        pages = {2078},
     abstract = "{Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is a critical component of the
        hydrological cycle and plays a key role in regional water
        resource management. The launch of the Gravity Recovery and
        Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission in 2002 has
        provided precise measurements of TWS, enabling systematic
        investigations into its spatial pattern and driving mechanisms.
        However, a comprehensive evaluation of the spatial drivers of
        TWS variations across China is still lacking. In this study, we
        employed a robust machine learning model to capture the spatial
        patterns of TWS in China and further applied the Shapley
        Additive Explanations (SHAP) method to disentangle the
        individualized effects of hydroclimatic variables. Our findings
        reveal that precipitation is the dominant driver in northern and
        southern China, while soil moisture and snow water equivalent
        are key contributors on the Tibetan Plateau. In northwestern
        China, air pressure and groundwater runoff are the main
        influencing factors, whereas temperature shows a pronounced
        negative effect. Importantly, most variables demonstrate non-
        monotonic influences: in particular, we found that the
        importance of precipitation diminishes beyond a certain
        threshold, and surface pressure shifts sharply toward a negative
        impact. The explainable machine learning framework demonstrated
        strong adaptability in identifying complex drivers of TWS,
        offering a powerful methodological advancement for exploring TWS
        dynamics and providing valuable insights for water resource
        management in China.}",
          doi = {10.3390/rs17122078},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025RemS...17.2078M},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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