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Global Groundwater Drought Assessment Revisited: A Holistic Re–Evaluation of the GRACE–Groundwater Drought Index Across Major Aquifers

Akl, Mohamed, Thomas, Brian F., and Clarke, Peter J., 2025. Global Groundwater Drought Assessment Revisited: A Holistic Re–Evaluation of the GRACE–Groundwater Drought Index Across Major Aquifers. Water Resources Research, 61(12):e2025WR040389, doi:10.1029/2025WR040389.

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BibTeX

@ARTICLE{2025WRR....6140389A,
       author = {{Akl}, Mohamed and {Thomas}, Brian F. and {Clarke}, Peter J.},
        title = "{Global Groundwater Drought Assessment Revisited: A Holistic Re-Evaluation of the GRACE-Groundwater Drought Index Across Major Aquifers}",
      journal = {Water Resources Research},
     keywords = {groundwater, GRACE, GGDI, remote sensing, uncertainty},
         year = 2025,
        month = dec,
       volume = {61},
       number = {12},
          eid = {e2025WR040389},
        pages = {e2025WR040389},
     abstract = "{The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On
        missions have enriched global groundwater monitoring, forming
        the basis for tools that detect groundwater drought, including
        the GRACE-Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI). The reliability of
        GGDI is fundamentally tied to the accurate isolation of a
        representative groundwater storage anomaly (GRACE-GWA) signal
        from GRACE observations, a challenge heightened by the scarcity
        of direct water budget measurements and the diverse
        methodologies applied in GRACE data processing. In this global
        assessment, we integrate multi-model GRACE-GWA estimates into
        the GGDI framework to examine how variability among these
        estimates influences groundwater drought interpretation across
        37 study aquifers. Results reveal substantial sensitivity of key
        drought indicators to input uncertainty, with maximum observed
        intra-basin discrepancies reaching 11 events, 122 months in
        maximum duration, 63.33 months in average duration, 24.47 in
        severity, and 5.4 in intensity. Aquifer memory, inferred from
        GGDI autocorrelation, reveals pronounced variability, most
        notably in the Nubian Basin where memory estimates range from 3
        to 61 months amongst multi-model realizations. Aquifers with
        higher memory tended to experience fewer drought events, yet
        those droughts were typically longer and more intense. Our
        findings underscore that even modest discrepancies in GRACE-GWA
        methodologies can translate into considerable uncertainties in
        both drought indicators and aquifer memory, thereby compromising
        the reliability of groundwater drought assessments.}",
          doi = {10.1029/2025WR040389},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025WRR....6140389A},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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