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Akl, Mohamed, Thomas, Brian F., and Clarke, Peter J., 2025. Global Groundwater Drought Assessment Revisited: A Holistic Re–Evaluation of the GRACE–Groundwater Drought Index Across Major Aquifers. Water Resources Research, 61(12):e2025WR040389, doi:10.1029/2025WR040389.
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@ARTICLE{2025WRR....6140389A,
author = {{Akl}, Mohamed and {Thomas}, Brian F. and {Clarke}, Peter J.},
title = "{Global Groundwater Drought Assessment Revisited: A Holistic Re-Evaluation of the GRACE-Groundwater Drought Index Across Major Aquifers}",
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {groundwater, GRACE, GGDI, remote sensing, uncertainty},
year = 2025,
month = dec,
volume = {61},
number = {12},
eid = {e2025WR040389},
pages = {e2025WR040389},
abstract = "{The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On
missions have enriched global groundwater monitoring, forming
the basis for tools that detect groundwater drought, including
the GRACE-Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI). The reliability of
GGDI is fundamentally tied to the accurate isolation of a
representative groundwater storage anomaly (GRACE-GWA) signal
from GRACE observations, a challenge heightened by the scarcity
of direct water budget measurements and the diverse
methodologies applied in GRACE data processing. In this global
assessment, we integrate multi-model GRACE-GWA estimates into
the GGDI framework to examine how variability among these
estimates influences groundwater drought interpretation across
37 study aquifers. Results reveal substantial sensitivity of key
drought indicators to input uncertainty, with maximum observed
intra-basin discrepancies reaching 11 events, 122 months in
maximum duration, 63.33 months in average duration, 24.47 in
severity, and 5.4 in intensity. Aquifer memory, inferred from
GGDI autocorrelation, reveals pronounced variability, most
notably in the Nubian Basin where memory estimates range from 3
to 61 months amongst multi-model realizations. Aquifers with
higher memory tended to experience fewer drought events, yet
those droughts were typically longer and more intense. Our
findings underscore that even modest discrepancies in GRACE-GWA
methodologies can translate into considerable uncertainties in
both drought indicators and aquifer memory, thereby compromising
the reliability of groundwater drought assessments.}",
doi = {10.1029/2025WR040389},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025WRR....6140389A},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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