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Multi–source remote sensing unveils hydrological dynamics and drought escalation in Central Asia's arid regions

Wang, Yuhao, Zheng, Zhijie, Zhu, Guofeng, Huang, Enwei, Meng, Gaojia, Lu, Siyu, Qiu, Dongdong, Chen, Longhu, Li, Rui, Jiao, Yinying, Zhao, Ling, Qi, Xiaoyu, Wang, Qinqin, Li, Wenmin, Miao, Yuxin, and Wang, Qingyang, 2026. Multi–source remote sensing unveils hydrological dynamics and drought escalation in Central Asia's arid regions. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 36(5):1105–1129, doi:10.1007/s11442-026-2484-y.

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@ARTICLE{2026JGSci..36.1105W,
       author = {{Wang}, Yuhao and {Zheng}, Zhijie and {Zhu}, Guofeng and {Huang}, Enwei and {Meng}, Gaojia and {Lu}, Siyu and {Qiu}, Dongdong and {Chen}, Longhu and {Li}, Rui and {Jiao}, Yinying and {Zhao}, Ling and {Qi}, Xiaoyu and {Wang}, Qinqin and {Li}, Wenmin and {Miao}, Yuxin and {Wang}, Qingyang},
        title = "{Multi-source remote sensing unveils hydrological dynamics and drought escalation in Central Asia's arid regions}",
      journal = {Journal of Geographical Sciences},
     keywords = {Central Asia's arid regions, drought dynamics, multi-source remote sensing, GRACE, hydrometeorological drivers, Random Forest, Earth Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience},
         year = 2026,
        month = may,
       volume = {36},
       number = {5},
        pages = {1105-1129},
     abstract = "{Despite the reported ``warming-wetting'' trend, Central Asia faces
        severe water insecurity due to climate shifts and anthropogenic
        activities. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing
        data (GRACE, TRMM, MODIS) with machine learning to analyze
        drought dynamics from 2003 to 2022 using the Water Storage
        Deficit Index (WSDI). Results reveal significant declines in
        terrestrial water storage (TWS) particularly in the Tianshan
        Mountains ({\ensuremath{-}}10.20 mm/yr) and the Central Desert
        ({\ensuremath{-}}6.19 mm/yr). Drought severity has intensified
        since 2014, with 67\% of subregions transitioning to moderate
        drought. Random Forest modeling indicates that drought is no
        longer solely climate-driven but is increasingly dominated by
        anthropogenic factors (GDP, urbanization, cropland), which
        explain over 85\% of the variability. Furthermore, the WSDI
        outperformed traditional indices by identifying 12 major drought
        events linked to deep aquifer depletion{\textemdash}a ``hidden''
        structural deficit often overlooked by surface-based metrics.
        These findings challenge the optimistic ``warming-wetting''
        narrative, highlighting the urgent need for storage-based
        management strategies to address anthropogenic groundwater
        depletion.}",
          doi = {10.1007/s11442-026-2484-y},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026JGSci..36.1105W},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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